Politics North Korea declares war?

[scyter]

If north korea fire a nuclear missile this weekend... There will be no more manga or anime

I'm download it like crazy... I have 3 computers working day and night on three different conections

North Korea shells South Korean army

 

[blai]

Re: Bye, Bye manga

What have I missed now?

 

[M3J]

Re: Bye, Bye manga

lol u trolling?

Why would NOrth Korea fire a missile at Japan, and would it really destroy the whole of Japan?


We don't need to worry though. The mangaka are safe; the publishers hide them in an underground bunker for protection.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Bye, Bye manga

North Korea shelled a South Korean island this week, killing two soldiers. The U.S. has already intervened, I'm sure China will soon. article

 

[CBlitz]

Re: Bye, Bye manga

*facepalm*

I don't think North Korea's missiles can stay airborne for over 30 seconds let alone long enough to actually hit another country. And lol NKorea depends on exports quite a bit, they don't have the luxury of starting a war. Besides it's not like China would let them

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Bye, Bye manga

I think the import most of their food, agriculture has been so badly mismanaged for 60 years. War means the rulers can't ear either. They do things like this when they want to extort "aid" from the U.S., EU, and China.

Last time they tested ballistic missiles they couldn't get the trajectory right. They might be able to nuke South Korea or China, but they couldn't actually aim. I doubt they could get a missile as far as Japan without it crashing into the ocean.

 

[scyter]

Re: Bye, Bye manga

they already sent few missilles across the japan(few years ago)

 

[blai]

Re: Bye, Bye manga

Changed thread title and Moved the thread to the World Topic Forum.

 

[Alterno]

Funny thing, I doubt that China will intervene, what Nixon did by making china a business partner is just strengthening China. I think China is going to become the first world military force, soon.

If I'm not mistaken even the U.S. intelligence wrote something about it. If China intervenes I doubt it will be in favor of the U.S. and South Korea.

God help us, I'm sick and tired of wars.

 

[blai]

Since the U.S has intervened they, and China, are bound to be doomed if China decides to join in because China and U.S are so incredibly dependant on each other's economy that if they fight each other they're both ruining their economy. And I doubt that either of them would like that.

Although, I can't see any other nation more likely to join NK than China at the moment. It happened before, it might happen again.

 

[Roflkopt3r]

Nobody is going to openly help North Korea in any way.

North Korea won't openly attack South Korea, because their losses in an all-out war would be spectacular, as their technology levels are split by decades.
South Korea won't openly attack North Korea, as they are afraid of those madmen at the top actually using their bomb.

China won't openly help North Korea in war, because China is way too dependend on world trade to do so and North Korea is maybe the one country with the least reputation world wide - even Iran has friends and important countries which at least accept the country in a neutral way (such as Brazil), North Korea does not.

I don't believe in any real interstate wars coming up - at least not outside Africa, and even there governments rather help rebels on their enemy's territory than risking an open war. Nothing else will happen over the next decades.

 

[Imperium]

In terms of both militaries, the technology level may be lower with North Korea but they can hurt the ROK very badly. It is so militarised as a nation that if there wasnt backing of the ROK by America and the UN they could be marching straight to Seoul. The ground forces they have is astounding and the only danger isnt the nuclear weapons they posses, i wouldn't be surprised if they have stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons that the world did not know about as well.

But i agree with Roflkopter, I dont think it will end in a war. There is too much at stake. If the North stops the ceasefire and declares war, the USA will be the first country helping South Korea. They still have that Nato-like alliance dont they? Which will mean China would have to step in as well. The only thing they care more than profits is instability next door. They are also in a great position economically, they can handle a longer war much better than the United States can. Having said that though, i really expect the whole situation to die down after the war games conclude.

If north korea fire a nuclear missile this weekend... There will be no more manga or anime

I'm download it like crazy... I have 3 computers working day and night on three different conections

Successful troll is successful.

 

[kkck]

I don't think north Korea has what it takes to go to war. It might have the military power to match South Korea but once the allies come into play things get really bad for them. North Korea does not stand a chance in hell once USA comes into play here and if they do come in other USA allies are bound to step in too. I agree if rofl, china won't help NK, it would be economic suicide at best. I doubt China would give up the growth they have had over the last couple of decades just to help a supposed ally with whom they only share an ideological point of view which china hasn't actually followed for 30 years (unless someone actually believes this self proclaimed communist country actually follows any actual communist economic policy). The only thing NK actually has here is a nuclear bomb and its capacity to spread fear through it. I guess we are back to the days of WWI, everything is kept in check through the fear of some lunatic firing a nuclear warhead against someone(of course back in WWI the balance of power did not include an actual nuclear bomb but there was a balance based on military power).

 

[Akainu]

So after the succession from Il to Un, which was surprisingly not discussed here it seems, North Korea yet again is threatening the south after these held a joint military manoeuvre with the USA. Now the thing is, the west seems to find it increasingly ridiculous and doesn't really seem to be bothered by the threats from the north. Is this a bit too naive, maybe even dangerous? And what brings Kim Jong Un there after initially announcing a policy of closer relations iirc. Is he frustrated? Is it internal politics? The attempt to save face because the country is ruined and the collapse/unification inevitable?
As for the dangers, I'm not quite sure how the threats of the North Koreans towards the USA were worded regarding the nukes, but the overwhelming reaction of "haha you can't" seems a bit stupid to me. There is more than one way to deliver an explosive, ways that seem to be forgotten with all the rocket science. I'm not saying North Korea will go another way, or rather any way, since I doubt they actually want to escalate the conflict that much, still the reports seem onesided to me.

 

[Kaiten]

There is no chance North Korea follows through on their threats. This is an exclusively internal matter. A young dictator, with no military credentials, talking tough to impress the senior brass. North Korea barely even has conventional arms, only decrepit Soviet era equipment. They can not actual manufacture nuclear warheads small enough to put on missiles, and even if they could, there guidance systems are not good enough for accurate reentry and strike. The missiles themselves may, or may not, even be flight worthy. Unlike in the Korean War, North Korea can not count on Chinese intervention. If it comes to war, China and Russia will not intervene. A North Korean strike against South Korea, Japan, or the US would only result in swift annihilation. This can not be lost on the North Korean military, who have been playing this game for twenty years. Worst case scenario they shell some uninhabited islands again.

 

[Akainu]

So what about going down in a blaze of glory? It's false glory by anyone's standards since he will be the bad guy for the next few upcoming generations of Koreans. He was true to the picture the south and the rest of the world (well almost all of it) has of North Korea.

And the other thing is this nuke thing again. Pretty much all nuclear tests/deployments worldwide have been carried out either by dropping as bombs from planes or static, just like North Korea did, if there were rockets involved, the test happend atmospheric and not on the ground (except for Frigate Bird, it seems?). Either way, what I'm trying to say is commentators should be careful with the assumption that North Korea doesn't have the ability to do that, when a Fishtrawler is enough - unlikely, but still. That is all assuming the threats were phrased in a way that doesn't specify the means of transport any further, à la "we will send rockets to nuke you".

 

[Drmke]

My worry isn't any sort of attack on U.S. soil, which North Korea is obviously not capable of doing, but an attack on U.S. bases in South Korea or South Korean cities is not out of the question. I don't believe Un has any power at all and I'm nearly certain the military leaders that stand behind him are the ones pulling the strings behind all of this. Judging by the way the government already treats its own people, I would be terrified but not surprised to see them attempt to fire nuclear weapons at South Korea..though it would almost inevitably effect their own people far more. The country has been far from rational for decades.

 

[blai]

He's most likely just flexing his muscles and showing his people that he's not a little kid but capable of ruling with an iron hand like his father and his father's father before that.

They'll back. They just want to punish South economically and the US diplomatically for a while before they pull back. Most likely after a treaty has been signed that benefits them.

 

[Kaiten]

He's most likely just flexing his muscles and showing his people that he's not a little kid but capable of ruling with an iron hand like his father and his father's father before that.

They'll back. They just want to punish South economically and the US diplomatically for a while before they pull back. Most likely after a treaty has been signed that benefits them.

They usually seem to do something like this whenever they want increased aid and new loans. That always was one of his fathers favorite tactics. China is already trying to rein them in, how far the Chinese are willing to push back remains to be seen. My understanding is that they would not do enough to actually threaten the stability of Pyongyang.

Like you said, this probably is a domestic issue, tough talk for the military and political elite. Unlike his father and grandfather, Jong-un has no military experience, the amount of support he has within the military elite is unknown. He may be pushing things this far in order to curry favor and prove himself. The North really do hate these joint exercises though. They probably do see them as real threats. There is some real provocation in this crisis, even if there is almost no chance it leads to war.

---------- Post added at 10:42 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:30 AM ----------

Closing Kaesong was pretty silly. North Korea just closed off it's best source of hard currency.