Games Mafia Game 112 - Panda Game - End Game

[James Rye]

Ofc the doc could have been a traitor who got recruited in N2 for all we know, but like, well. *throws hands up*
Not like we know.

 

[Baka Taichou]

Personally I think the last Mafia is Baka, with me and marm making the useless investigative Mason circus and Holt the sole real investigative role in the game. A Mafia with a +1 vote and -1 vote make a lot of sense. If they avoid being killed early and manange to get rid of the TP then they could have won on their votes at day 3 if they get the townie number down to 4 if SK had been successful. Day 1 townie dies, night 1 2 townie dies, day 2 1 townie dies, night 2 2 townie dies = 6 dead townies out of 10 in a gaming pool of 14 players with 1 TP, 3 Mafia and 10 Townies. Seems reasonable enough considering if they failed to lynch SK on day 3 the game wouldn't dead and they risk getting killed by SK then plus with the hider, BP and BG/Doc there was enough protection around to have some kills fail as it happened.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

I disagree, mostly because I remember at least one Game where Mafia had Healthy on their side as well. But fine by me. I might remember wrongly after all or it was due a game mechanic.

Anyway, I am off for a while. Hopefully Holt comes around and can show us what he found out.

bruh you wanna make me waste my 2 votes on you? or why so insistent ))))))) I WAS LITERALLY JUST CONFIRMED AS HEALTHY TOWNIE LMAO

 

[James Rye]

bruh you wanna make me waste my 2 votes on you? or why so insistent ))))))) I WAS LITERALLY JUST CONFIRMED AS HEALTHY TOWNIE LMAO

True that. But there is a possibility that if you are M.Pirate, you could have stolen it for all we know. Just keeping all options open. But no worries, lynching Holt reveals the most information as Gry has written it out and if he is the last Mafia then the game is over and won.^^

 

[Baka Taichou]

I'll read this all tomorrow.

Gajeel says he targeted Holt N1 - he hit a mafia here. And it's probably not Holt. I'm gonna say James who is a mason that lynches a mason.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

Answer to your game. Only 1 block has been identified so far which aligns with my 1 use.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

MBoss MDet?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

Don't mind following an accountant style lynch like that one Gry.

G'night

he could be lying about being mason and actually be m boss and m det

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

True that. But there is a possibility that if you are M.Pirate, you could have stolen it for all we know. Just keeping all options open. But no worries, lynching Holt reveals the most information as Gry has written it out and if he is the last Mafia then the game is over and won.^^

stop trying to find excuses lmao, I left heavy hints for both roles since the start of DAY 1. DAY 2 I CLAIMED EARLY so, how would i have possibly known D1 to fake healthy since i couldn't have known it was in game?

 

[James Rye]

he could be lying about being mason and actually be m boss and m det

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

stop trying to find excuses lmao, I left heavy hints for both roles since the start of DAY 1. DAY 2 I CLAIMED EARLY so, how would i have possibly known D1 to fake healthy since i couldn't have known it was in game?

That ain't possible because putting in a single Mason with no other Mason is like against the rules or something, lol. Lol, your excuses are worse than mine. Relax, Baka, relax.^^

 

[Baka Taichou]

See? I knew you would be disappointed, investigating me.^^

@GrySun So do we lynch Holt to check or do we go for the doc or do you want to lynch me and see that I was telling the truth about Mason/Det all along?

Ah, btw - how about the Mafia Noble had Mafia Pirate and stole the Healthy Townie from our Doc? Then that would explain why the sickly move from Brand didn't work on Baka.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

We could check that by Brand using sickly on Tatsu. If it works it means Tatsu no longer has her HT and that it was stolen without her noticing it.

or that she never had it and she's your mafia buddy, which honestly makes more sense considering how you've been defending her all game, than brandish avoiding to confirm her.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

Need to organize my thoughts a bit. Brandish should be clear, Gry is confirmed. Not sure if the Shad’s death is in hopes of him taking down another townie or simply reducing the trusted pool. Going to look at this as objectively as possible.

James- Claims Mason/det with guilty on Tatsu, Sam and Me. Unless both of us are scum, he’s paranoid. Would fit (albeit cruelly) with Marm also being paranoid. Both masons were trolls but maybe the damage was intended to be reduced by them discussing and figuring it out between each other ? To be scum he’d have to be Mason/Boss but I think that’s too far even for panda.

Tatsu- doc and Ht. Sole claimed doc and would make sense with 2 killing parties, prost, Bg, Necro could’ve tentatively handle this although with sacrifices. Not putting a doc could be in consideration of SK? Might be a stretch but gotta consider all angles. Ht bit is fine considering the sicklys.

Baka- Noble and HT. Brandish confirms she does have HT, but that could’ve been pirated. Also hasn’t used noble even though she was asked at least once? Although we do know her being recruited should be unlikely(?), if mafia, it’s possible she may have saving the noble for a time when numbers don’t favour. Also arguable that as mafia she would’ve readily used it to gain more credibility. Not sure which it is. Pirate stealing HT would be god-tier as it would’ve worked in her favor regardless of brand targeting her or Tatsu. But I think she already hinted this very early?


Honestly don’t know which way to go. I really thought James had to be the last scum but unless he is boss which is unlikely, then he isn’t. Kinda wish I had checked Tatsu instead of DD previously. There’s still a lot of time so I’ll have to analyze a bit more

when exactly was i asked to use noble?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

That ain't possible because putting in a single Mason with no other Mason is like against the rules or something, lol. Lol, your excuses are worse than mine. Relax, Baka, relax.^^

at least i don't know the rules

but you're right mason/boss makes a lot more sense

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

That ain't possible because putting in a single Mason with no other Mason is like against the rules or something, lol. Lol, your excuses are worse than mine. Relax, Baka, relax.^^

I'm actually very relaxed dw )) i'd have insta locked both votes on you if I wasn't

you trying to frame me is extremely funny

and i'm thinking there's no doctor in this game and you and tatsu are last mafias.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

well i'm gonna go to bed, will vote whatever gry says to vote cuz he's the only one i can trust. So gry, no pressure ^^

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023 ---

scratch that, day ends in 12 hrs and idk if i'll be here in time (will try) so i'll put a filler vote on who I think is most worth dying due to the way he's trying to set me up so much today. Also addressing me as a he -.- #shame

!votekill James Rye
will ofc swap if i manage to come back to whoever gry says. This is just a backup.

 

[Holt]

Honestly thought about it and it has to be Tatsu? For it to be James or Baka, the former would be M.mason and boss which is broken. For it to be the latter, she’d have to be pirate who stole HT but she’s been kinda consistent with this all game ?

Tatsu has Erin mini-spearhead and sole doc going for her. But we did have Prost and Bg, and she was second on Erin so maybe she didn’t expect it to escalate to a lynch? At the end of the day, someone has to be lying tbh. Everyone has convenient/understandable claims. I think this is the weakest link.

Votekill Tatsu

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 9, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 9, 2023 ---

At this point I find it really hard to trust anyone that isn’t host confirmed. I also do trust a few others but again someone has to be lying so there’s this voice in my head. However, for me to scum, I’d have to know Gaj was tp (meaning I’m M.Det). Even if I did, rather than keep him alive to whittle numbers, I’d actively sacrifice him (almost throwing since getting him lynched as to doesn’t give me much credibility). Additionally, it’d mean there’s a sole Det (James) and he’s either paranoid or both I and Tatsu are scum. As much as Im trying to be objective, we’re in endgame which is my forte and I’d love to figure this puzzle out. The reason I distrust Tatsu is mainly considering setup. There are contingencies to save or prevent kills without a doc. There’s Baka confirmed (?) to be HT. Could be said both Tatsu’s roles are pointless. It’s a great claim really, and admittedly very hard/ballsy to claim, but we can say the same for everyone else. And someone has to be lying.

 

[Brandish μ]

@Brandish μ If only you had sickly Tatsu we might know a lot more now...

It was decided yday that Baka be sickly'd.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 10, 2023 ---

There's hypotheticals for everyone being a mafia except the IC I suppose. I've resolved the other four players as below.

James is a claimed town mason who switched on Marm at a critical time. If James is town mason he nearly went against a win condition right there. He is not a new born foal so this play is deleterious as a T.mason. There was no indication on D1 that they were in the same mason group. There was not enough evidence for a fellow town mason to lynch Marm as a potential mafia mason either, imo. Further, Marm did not reach out to anyone which some had remarked on D2 and importantly there was no remorse on D2 from James iirc. If I'm to guess two things from that - Marm had a bastard mason role and James is not a mason. If James is mafia mason why not keep Marm alive? If James is mafia I would think he's not mafia mason. His claim is a double edged sword but one I believe ultimately 'looks town'. James has been identified as 'guilty' by the insane detective which means for my suspicion to be maintained I would need to assume MBoss on James.

Holt is a claimed insane detective. He caught an SK and no mafia. He was a part of the Erin train but not last on (think he was 4th out of 7?). If a mafia there's still something he can do about that (lynching Erin). I remember him being suspicious of Sam too. I spied him N1 and got a different result to his claimed target of Shad (I got James) [also means Marm got a double bastard]. I watched him after that and concluded he was a detective, he either is imo or a smooth mafia who acts detective part quite well. If he were mafia detective he should have held off the Gajeel lynch.

Tatsu is practically clear for me. If she is mafia, Erin was against her on D1 and Tatsu was critical in lynching Erin(Escort) D2 - that's a lot of reaching. I don't think she's done anything to suggest mafia in her role.

Baka is town. I'm not entertaining healthy townie on a mafia, and she used Noble D1 which is a fairly town thing to do imo.

James is the only one I think is mafia at the moment.

 

[GrySun]

My thoughts after mulling it over:

• Brandish - GB was blocked N2. At that point both town Prostitute and Escort were dead. If not town Necromancer then what else could it be? If they had a 2nd Escort this would be too OP. Can't be an upgraded Rookie because he couldn't have learned it before N2.

• Baka Taichou - has to be town due to Brandish' confirmation. Would any Pirate not grab Shad's Jesus when it was literally right there from N1, instead keep it until Tatsu claimed Healthy Townie? Maybe if M. Det investigated Tatsu N1, but iirc Baka was requesting sickly to target her since D1 or D2, both too early for a planned Pirate steal. So Baka has to be town. Tatsu also protected her N2 so she should've been unrecruitable.

• Tatsu - It's funny just how much action Tatsu has been in since the game started. She's like the central player of the game, the protagonist Panda. Got involved in a D1 lynch and was saved by townies. 1 mafia was on her for two days, then Samuel also tried to frame her with Spy targets. Would they really do some 300IQ play of over-elaborately crafting a believable Tatsu for endgame? I don't believe it. Doctor also fits with how we're lacking in ways to prevent kills(yet funnily we still blocked more than is to be expected by hosts).

Something is definitely weird in yesterday voting , i can't see it any other way, marm was very likely killed to save tatsu. Can tatsu be town, Idk, maybe if Marm wasnt mason, Id assume maybe tatsu is something like this , among last 3 votes cast on marm there should be at least one mafia that took advantage of that situation, and thats the weird part, coz Gry hints to be BP not sure what to think , but he promised he will explain what he meant in hints etc., James said he has a a role that can confirm him and Shad claimed Banshee/jesus , he is the one i trust the most among the 3.

Something is off, here, at least 1 or 2 persons seemed to desperately trying to save Tatsu after Marm claimed investigative role ( if they are not mafia maybe its something like traitor or idk. I dont think all those votes on marm were purely oops or coincidental.


Therefore for now Im voting for Tatsu. waiting for potential new infos or reveals to move it, if necessary.


Votekill Tatsu

This Erin quote encapsulates well I think that there wasn't some planned scheme with teammate Tatsu. Their early gameplan seems to been to paint the D1 lynch and sudden switches to something weird and lynch town Tatsu.

I agree with most of this. Especially Erin, Gajeel and Sam

I mean I would be okay with Erin, she attacked me all day when she didn't have anything either to bring to the table so
But I feel like Gajeel and Sam posts are even less remarquable...

She was very early supportive of thinking badly of both Erin and Sam. Masterful mafia play I don't mind losing to, but I think it's town.

• James - There needs to be a Mason to pair with Marm. I can believe hosts trolling, but I refuse to believe Marmalade would just keep to herself how she got host-trolled and not mention it D1. James' social aspect hints also fit. Just that the Mafia Mason angle exists. He lynched his Mason buddy for.. claiming investigative? Despite he himself being investigative so he should know Mason can start with it? His targets were bad and results not helpful, he's eerily calm about the whole game unlike what I believe town James to sound like. But Holt clears him, so he must be Mafia Mason + Mafia Boss, pretty broken. Would they then not have a Mafia Det whatsoever, or he has a 4th teammate that is Mafia Det?
  Another angle is Holt targeting James N2 when we had no kills. We assumed Marm was troll Spy, but if real then mafia Holt either investigated or recruited James.
  He was sicklied N1. Most likely by mafia Samuel. Would it have been smart of them to lower their voting-power intentionally on a teammate? Given how D2 panned out they could've used some votes.

• Holt - main thing to note is that he cleared James rather than frame him. Meaning they aren't close to winning that 1 mislynch wins them the game, if he's mafia. Another important thing is, if there are only 3 mafias Holt would need to stop using Mafia Det and instead kill from N3 onwards because he lost Erin and Sam by that point. But at which point would he have used M. Det on Gajeel? No way they kill with Erin when he had both Escort and M. Doc. No way they kill with Sam to waste Strongman early, so he sicklied instead. So Holt would have had to do the kill. This leaves only N3 where a Holt with 2 teammates could have used M. Det. And to use it on Gajeel specifically. So N2 Sam failed with Strongman lol, achievement unlocked.
  So does this sound plausible? Sniping Gajeel N2, then using the Gajeel resultto his advantage on the day we were thinking of lynching one of the Detectives? He says as mafia he'd keep the SK, but if he's the last member of the team he must think of his survival first, and we were lynching among him or James.
  Holt was kinda present during the D2 lynch but didn't involve himself much in the decision process, letting the rest of us talk it out. He was the 5th vote on Erin, after she already was voted by me, Tatsu, Shad and Gajeel, all 4 not mafia. He couldn't have saved Erin at that point anymore.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 10, 2023 ---

TL;DR

- I refuse to believe in 4 mafias + SK, too many.
- All circumstances surrounding Tatsu, Brandish and Baka show they are town.
- Mafia must be between either James or Holt.

Neither of the 2 has a great voting record or had notable interactions with mafias.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

@Brandish μ do you have enough Spice left to use GB's Mortician?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

Shit no you don't. Maximum sadness.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

This be a real hard choice.

1. Lynch James - Flips town (1 v 4)
Scum would be Holt. I can't see Tatsu, Bran or Baka fit as mafia. Bran BG on Tatsu, Tatsu Doc on Bran, I hide behind one of you, mafia forced to kill either Holt or Baka. Shad no kill.
Baka dies, 1v3, Shad revives, 1v4. We have 2 mislynches. Lynch Holt, then if game not over lynch Tatsu I guess?

2. Lynch James - Flips mafia, game not over (1 v 4)
Bran use BG on Tatsu. Tatsu use Doctor on Holt or Bran. I hide behind one of you three. Shad no kill.
Baka probably dies, Shad revives, 1v4. Holt will be alive to confirm another person(Tatsu/Bran), we lynch Holt for safety, then we lynch the remaining unconfirmed player(Tatsu/Bran). We win.

3. Lynch Holt - Flips town (1 v 4)
Scum would be James with Mason+Boss. Bran Det use on Tatsu. Tatsu protect Bran. I hide behind Bran. Shad no kill.
Baka probably dies, Shad revives, 1v4. We lynch Tatsu if found by Bran, or James if Tatsu cleared. We win.

4. Lynch Holt - Flips mafia, game not over (1 v 4)
Bran BG on Tatsu, Tatsu Doc on Bran. I hide behind one of you and be safe. Mafia forced to kill James or Baka. Shad no kill.
Baka probably dies, Shad revives, 1v4. We lynch James, if game still not over then we have one more chance between Tatsu, Bran and me final day of 3.

Either way we win, I don't see how mafia can squeeze out a win without having 2 members who are both very well hidden like Bran + Baka.

@Shad do not use your kill, this gives us 2 lynch chances in most calculations. But I can't stop you so worst case we have only the final day when you revive to lynch correctly.

I'd like to think we win regardless, just which option between James and Holt is more comfortable?

 

[James Rye]

Meh, I don't care if I die. But if you guys seriously wanna lynch me after Holt got guilty on me which would make me M.Mason/M.Boss which is a stupid af combo, go ahead. Would be a typical town play after all, lol.

We still got @Shad to kill Holt. And I also don't believe that we have 4 Mafia plus 1 TP. Even 3 Mafia/1TP and 1 Sleeper/Traitor seems too much and that is the only way we could lose aka if Tatsu and Baka were Mafia and like Gry said, that is pretty much impossible given the circumstances.

@Baka Taichou You don't have a female tag, ergo you get the he treatment until you have the "correct gender" as people loooooove to talk about those days. Also both Gry and Holt agree that M.Mason/M.Boss is an impossibility so I got no idea why you suddenly think that is a possibility. I'm pretty sure we never had that combination for that exact reason because it is pretty much impossible for town to prove that this combo is scum.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 10, 2023 ---

And even if Shad doesn't kill Holt, doesn't matter, because last Mafia is solo vs 5 towns right now. As long as they don't manage to kill Gry when he hides behind somebody else all is good.

 

[GrySun]

Doubt Shad even has Holt tagged.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 10, 2023 ---

!votekill Holt for now. I certainly want one of the Dets gone, just not fully sure which one is best yet.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

James I never said M. Boss is an impossibility on Mafia Mason. Just not a combo I‘d use, since you have nothing to spend spice on. But P a n d a g a e m

 

[James Rye]

Doubt Shad even has Holt tagged.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 10, 2023 ---

!votekill Holt for now. I certainly want one of the Dets gone, just not fully sure which one is best yet.

Maybe he tagged him on his last night, who knows.

Votekill Holt

@GrySun The only thing I don't understand about your theory is my guilty result on Tatsu. Because if Holt turns out scum then that means I am the sole Det with only three uses which should makes me sane. And then that leaves the question open as to what Tatsu is then. Traitor/Doc being sold out by M.Det/whatever combo? Seems a bit strange to me because the only other target Holt would have to brand as possible Mafia would be Baka and for that Baka would have to be M.Pirate to be HT since Brand's sickly didn't work on her. You cannot be Mafia, I would have to be M.Mason/M.Boss after his guilty on me and Brand is double Necro, like that just doesn't work. And yet Holt wants to lynch Tatsu today? Does he hope he can get a double kill? I just don't get what the Mafia plan is here.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

Doubt Shad even has Holt tagged.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 10, 2023 ---

!votekill Holt for now. I certainly want one of the Dets gone, just not fully sure which one is best yet.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

James I never said M. Boss is an impossibility on Mafia Mason. Just not a combo I‘d use, since you have nothing to spend spice on. But P a n d a g a e m

Last Game we didn't had two passives either so to me that IS an impossibility. Denying a player to partake in the game mechanic is contraproductive plus a M.Mason/M.Boss also denies Mafia other Mafia roles they could have had otherwise like Pirate, Janitor, Poisoner, Detective, etc. Like for real M.Doc/Prostitute and sickly/strongman with a M.Mason/M.Boss? That's like.... sooooooo weak. At the very least they would need a M.Det to be able to gather information.

 

[GrySun]

@GrySun The only thing I don't understand about your theory is my guilty result on Tatsu. Because if Holt turns out scum then that means I am the sole Det with only three uses which should makes me sane. And then that leaves the question open as to what Tatsu is then. Traitor/Doc being sold out by M.Det/whatever combo? Seems a bit strange to me because the only other target Holt would have to brand as possible Mafia would be Baka and for that Baka would have to be M.Pirate to be HT since Brand's sickly didn't work on her. You cannot be Mafia, I would have to be M.Mason/M.Boss after his guilty on me and Brand is double Necro, like that just doesn't work. And yet Holt wants to lynch Tatsu today? Does he hope he can get a double kill? I just don't get what the Mafia plan is here.

I mean then are you saying Holt is the real Det and you're the M. Boss?

Maybe we had no functioning Dets and they had no Bosses. They knew right away your uselessness when you had same result on Tatsu and Sam. Tatsu result then doesn't matter.

Plan was maybe to kill me and Shad, Shad shoots either Tatsu or Brand, Holt stalls by finding a Guilty on someone. Then it would work this way:
1v4 today with me dead and shad dead.
1v3 after mislynch on Tatsu.
1v2 after Shad shoots Brandish.
1v1 with Holt killing Baka.

Shad respawns. Final day Shad, Holt and James. Shad will happily lynch James as according to older posts. Holt wins?

My survival doesn't even mess up the plan much, Shad just has too shoot a townie for it to be worth it.

 

[Holt]

My thoughts after mulling it over:

• Brandish - GB was blocked N2. At that point both town Prostitute and Escort were dead. If not town Necromancer then what else could it be? If they had a 2nd Escort this would be too OP. Can't be an upgraded Rookie because he couldn't have learned it before N2.

• Baka Taichou - has to be town due to Brandish' confirmation. Would any Pirate not grab Shad's Jesus when it was literally right there from N1, instead keep it until Tatsu claimed Healthy Townie? Maybe if M. Det investigated Tatsu N1, but iirc Baka was requesting sickly to target her since D1 or D2, both too early for a planned Pirate steal. So Baka has to be town. Tatsu also protected her N2 so she should've been unrecruitable.

• Tatsu - It's funny just how much action Tatsu has been in since the game started. She's like the central player of the game, the protagonist Panda. Got involved in a D1 lynch and was saved by townies. 1 mafia was on her for two days, then Samuel also tried to frame her with Spy targets. Would they really do some 300IQ play of over-elaborately crafting a believable Tatsu for endgame? I don't believe it. Doctor also fits with how we're lacking in ways to prevent kills(yet funnily we still blocked more than is to be expected by hosts).

This Erin quote encapsulates well I think that there wasn't some planned scheme with teammate Tatsu. Their early gameplan seems to been to paint the D1 lynch and sudden switches to something weird and lynch town Tatsu.




She was very early supportive of thinking badly of both Erin and Sam. Masterful mafia play I don't mind losing to, but I think it's town.

• James - There needs to be a Mason to pair with Marm. I can believe hosts trolling, but I refuse to believe Marmalade would just keep to herself how she got host-trolled and not mention it D1. James' social aspect hints also fit. Just that the Mafia Mason angle exists. He lynched his Mason buddy for.. claiming investigative? Despite he himself being investigative so he should know Mason can start with it? His targets were bad and results not helpful, he's eerily calm about the whole game unlike what I believe town James to sound like. But Holt clears him, so he must be Mafia Mason + Mafia Boss, pretty broken. Would they then not have a Mafia Det whatsoever, or he has a 4th teammate that is Mafia Det?
  Another angle is Holt targeting James N2 when we had no kills. We assumed Marm was troll Spy, but if real then mafia Holt either investigated or recruited James.
  He was sicklied N1. Most likely by mafia Samuel. Would it have been smart of them to lower their voting-power intentionally on a teammate? Given how D2 panned out they could've used some votes.

• Holt - main thing to note is that he cleared James rather than frame him. Meaning they aren't close to winning that 1 mislynch wins them the game, if he's mafia. Another important thing is, if there are only 3 mafias Holt would need to stop using Mafia Det and instead kill from N3 onwards because he lost Erin and Sam by that point. But at which point would he have used M. Det on Gajeel? No way they kill with Erin when he had both Escort and M. Doc. No way they kill with Sam to waste Strongman early, so he sicklied instead. So Holt would have had to do the kill. This leaves only N3 where a Holt with 2 teammates could have used M. Det. And to use it on Gajeel specifically. So N2 Sam failed with Strongman lol, achievement unlocked.
  So does this sound plausible? Sniping Gajeel N2, then using the Gajeel resultto his advantage on the day we were thinking of lynching one of the Detectives? He says as mafia he'd keep the SK, but if he's the last member of the team he must think of his survival first, and we were lynching among him or James.
  Holt was kinda present during the D2 lynch but didn't involve himself much in the decision process, letting the rest of us talk it out. He was the 5th vote on Erin, after she already was voted by me, Tatsu, Shad and Gajeel, all 4 not mafia. He couldn't have saved Erin at that point anymore.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 10, 2023 ---

TL;DR

- I refuse to believe in 4 mafias + SK, too many.
- All circumstances surrounding Tatsu, Brandish and Baka show they are town.
- Mafia must be between either James or Holt.

Neither of the 2 has a great voting record or had notable interactions with mafias.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

@Brandish μ do you have enough Spice left to use GB's Mortician?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

Shit no you don't. Maximum sadness.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

This be a real hard choice.

1. Lynch James - Flips town (1 v 4)
Scum would be Holt. I can't see Tatsu, Bran or Baka fit as mafia. Bran BG on Tatsu, Tatsu Doc on Bran, I hide behind one of you, mafia forced to kill either Holt or Baka. Shad no kill.
Baka dies, 1v3, Shad revives, 1v4. We have 2 mislynches. Lynch Holt, then if game not over lynch Tatsu I guess?

2. Lynch James - Flips mafia, game not over (1 v 4)
Bran use BG on Tatsu. Tatsu use Doctor on Holt or Bran. I hide behind one of you three. Shad no kill.
Baka probably dies, Shad revives, 1v4. Holt will be alive to confirm another person(Tatsu/Bran), we lynch Holt for safety, then we lynch the remaining unconfirmed player(Tatsu/Bran). We win.

3. Lynch Holt - Flips town (1 v 4)
Scum would be James with Mason+Boss. Bran Det use on Tatsu. Tatsu protect Bran. I hide behind Bran. Shad no kill.
Baka probably dies, Shad revives, 1v4. We lynch Tatsu if found by Bran, or James if Tatsu cleared. We win.

4. Lynch Holt - Flips mafia, game not over (1 v 4)
Bran BG on Tatsu, Tatsu Doc on Bran. I hide behind one of you and be safe. Mafia forced to kill James or Baka. Shad no kill.
Baka probably dies, Shad revives, 1v4. We lynch James, if game still not over then we have one more chance between Tatsu, Bran and me final day of 3.

Either way we win, I don't see how mafia can squeeze out a win without having 2 members who are both very well hidden like Bran + Baka.

@Shad do not use your kill, this gives us 2 lynch chances in most calculations. But I can't stop you so worst case we have only the final day when you revive to lynch correctly.

I'd like to think we win regardless, just which option between James and Holt is more comfortable?

Here are a few things to keep in mind Gry. James got guilty on Tatsu, Sam and me. Like I said previously, if both of us are not mafia, then James is paranoid. If I'm mafia, then town only had a paranoid det. Me being mafia would also mean we'd have to consider Marm was not paranoid and I really checked James N1. I went at James from the moment he revealed det and especially when he mentioned it was an omo. My basis for that was my det being an aigoo. Additionally, I pressured him more on his aigoo however, this is something I should have known since I would've checked his role prior. Ofc the argument can be made that I am not a M.Det but some other role, however, I could not have been certain enough of Gaj being scum if I wasn't M.Det so that argument falls apart. As you rightly mentioned, M.Det would've had to stop using their role and start killing by themselves so that leaves me only N1 and N2, in which I found both sole det and tp. Not impossible, but those sure are some great odds.

You mentioned that I had to think of myself first and thus give up Gajeel for trust points, but the thing is I didn't need to. If anything, I was expected to have checked James. The same result I have today could have been used yesterday, and frankly there would have been a lot more chaos, it is debatable that I could be lynched for safety/checking purposes but that is a bit unlikely, especially with how insistent Shad was on Tatsu being mentor. Basically, I could've likely gotten away with keeping me and Gaj alive to double kill at night. So yes it is understandable that I could give up Gaj for my survival, but it was not the only play, and certainly not the best one.

It's possible I'm biased because of my result on James, but I'm thinking more about roles/results because the last mafia has played their hand quite well so far. Doing more of a process of elimination. Brandish confirmed by GB, Baka confirmed by Brandish, I confirmed James, you're host confirmed. There are nuances that could invalidate these confirmations, but at this point, there is only Tatsu who doesn't have that going for her. It's putting the cart before the horse for me to think of lynching anyone before her. Trying not to tunnel here but it's a math solution imo.

 

[GrySun]

If Holt killed N1 he couldn't M. Det, and they prefered Erin to block or protect. N2 Holt can M. Det Gajeel, Sam whiffs Strongman? Hm.

 

[James Rye]

I mean then are you saying Holt is the real Det and you're the M. Boss?

Maybe we had no functioning Dets and they had no Bosses. They knew right away your uselessness when you had same result on Tatsu and Sam. Tatsu result then doesn't matter.

Plan was maybe to kill me and Shad, Shad shoots either Tatsu or Brand, Holt stalls by finding a Guilty on someone. Then it would work this way:
1v4 today with me dead and shad dead.
1v3 after mislynch on Tatsu.
1v2 after Shad shoots Brandish.
1v1 with Holt killing Baka.

Shad respawns. Final day Shad, Holt and James. Shad will happily lynch James as according to older posts. Holt wins?

My survival doesn't even mess up the plan much, Shad just has too shoot a townie for it to be worth it.

Again, look at last game, no two passives on anybody.

Maybe it is possible we never had a functioning det but then also not having a function spy? Sounds broken to me. And yeah, me not dying after revealing tatsu and sam results is strange, after all I could have gone for you or Shad to confirm my sanity to confirm whatever Tatsu really is, but Mafia wasn't scared of that.

Maybe Holt/Tatsu are buddies after all and I am sane after all. Because if they had managed to kill you and Shad then we would be 5 players today and Holt could have easily framed me as innocent so that the day ends with 2-2 but with 6 people he can't do so anymore. Still even with 6 framing me would have made the most sense because going with 5 into the night means they win 2-2 after the night ends so this means Holt and Tatsu cannot be buddies and I am paranoid after all and there is only a solo Mafia left?
Argh!
This whole stuff makes no sense to me! It would have made so much more sense for Holt to call innocent on me, but he didn't and the numbers just doesn't add up. >.<

 

[GrySun]

Here are a few things to keep in mind Gry. James got guilty on Tatsu, Sam and me. Like I said previously, if both of us are not mafia, then James is paranoid. If I'm mafia, then town only had a paranoid det. Me being mafia would also mean we'd have to consider Marm was not paranoid and I really checked James N1. I went at James from the moment he revealed det and especially when he mentioned it was an omo. My basis for that was my det being an aigoo. Additionally, I pressured him more on his aigoo however, this is something I should have known since I would've checked his role prior. Ofc the argument can be made that I am not a M.Det but some other role, however, I could not have been certain enough of Gaj being scum if I wasn't M.Det so that argument falls apart. As you rightly mentioned, M.Det would've had to stop using their role and start killing by themselves so that leaves me only N1 and N2, in which I found both sole det and tp. Not impossible, but those sure are some great odds.

You mentioned that I had to think of myself first and thus give up Gajeel for trust points, but the thing is I didn't need to. If anything, I was expected to have checked James. The same result I have today could have been used yesterday, and frankly there would have been a lot more chaos, it is debatable that I could be lynched for safety/checking purposes but that is a bit unlikely, especially with how insistent Shad was on Tatsu being mentor. Basically, I could've likely gotten away with keeping me and Gaj alive to double kill at night. So yes it is understandable that I could give up Gaj for my survival, but it was not the only play, and certainly not the best one.

It's possible I'm biased because of my result on James, but I'm thinking more about roles/results because the last mafia has played their hand quite well so far. Doing more of a process of elimination. Brandish confirmed by GB, Baka confirmed by Brandish, I confirmed James, you're host confirmed. There are nuances that could invalidate these confirmations, but at this point, there is only Tatsu who doesn't have that going for her. It's putting the cart before the horse for me to think of lynching anyone before her. Trying not to tunnel here but it's a math solution imo.

Not all has to be true at the same time though.

James and Marm could both be useless investigative roles. Maybe power was meant to come from semi-confirmable roles, and to figure out the rest ourselves? So we never had non-useless investigative roles, except for Mortician who could clear a lot of targets. A big shame Lawl never got to use it and Brand didn't keep some spice for it.

My theory regarding you right now is that you are Mafia Det, but you only had 1 night to check and found Gajeel, others nights had to kill. Erin either protected you or blocked Gajeel. Then with Marm useless Spy we don't need to entertain the chance you checked james because you didn't on N2.

I agree you could've done this same result last day but it would end the same way, where we pick between you and James. Maybe we even lynch Gajeel and thus you never even got a bit of points for finding some non-town.

But let's ignore this for now, and focus on the remaining flow.

---------

You mention Tatsu, but the posts I quoted sound far too legitimate to me to be a fake mafia crafted ploy. Tatsu was anti Erin and Sam early enough, and they both were trying to frame her for a lynch.

But let's assume we lynch Tatsu, she dies town. Then what? If you're mafia, and Shad shoots Brandish or James, you just have to kill Baka and frame in the final day whoever Shad hasn't shot. Like Brandish.

If you're town you get another night of investigating, but we can get the same by having Brandish use his last spice on your Aigoo Det. Lynching you just sounds the most optimal to me. We exclude a scum mafia Det play, confirm(?) James, Brandish can be protected by Tatsu while he Det-checks Tatsu.

If Tatsu lets Brandish die we lynch Tatsu. If someone else dies, Brandish can tell us his result on Tatsu. If she is mafia she is lynched, if not we lynch James or Baka, whoever was not killed by mafia.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023, Original Post Date: Jun 10, 2023 ---

Just tell me where you see the future going Holt. If Tatsu isn't mafia then what? Lynch James for being Boss? Lynch Brandish or Baka who you may or may not find Innocent on?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

If Tatsu is a recruited Traitor it would fit that she was against the mafias because she knew who they were. But then I fail to see who her teammate is if not you or James. So we must wade through the 2 Dets regardless.

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

@Tatsumaki it's a shiny saturday, surely you wanna step in and use your reasoning in late-game to confirm yourself rather than just ride on the tailcoats of first days mafia interactions?

 

[James Rye]

Yeah, two dets is one too many in a 14 player game. Either me or Holt should die today.

 

[GrySun]

Alternatively I'd hate it much more to lose to James than to lose to Holt

 

[Holt]

Just tell me where you see the future going Holt. If Tatsu isn't mafia then what? Lynch James for being Boss? Lynch Brandish or Baka who you may or may not find Innocent on?

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

If Tatsu is a recruited Traitor it would fit that she was against the mafias because she knew who they were. But then I fail to see who her teammate is if not you or James. So we must wade through the 2 Dets regardless.

I can only give results tbh, and if Tatsu isn’t scum, and my result on Baka or Brandish doesn’t bring any new information to light, I’d likely turn back on James as the most likely to be scum. I’ve explained my thought process on not going after James first before Tatsu. Still though, I guess circling back to James might be inevitable. Also there’s less damage done than if Tatsu is legit Doc. Plus it would still work out as long as either way as long as Shad doesn’t shoot. Or atleast he doesn’t do so carelessly. I’m already getting tired at this point so I’m honestly fine with whichever line of action is deemed most optimal

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 10, 2023 ---

It’s unlikely I will be back in time for the rest of the game. Would love to wait for Tatsu because I saw her on earlier but doesn’t seem like she’ll be back? Anyway resolving the det seems to be priority now so I’ll Votekill James. I’m the only one locked so there should be more than enough wiggle room for everyone to still swing votes if another decision is reached